Understanding the Marketplace

If you have not read the short article on how to Choose Between Traditional and Self-Publishing, then make certain you are armed with that information prior to proceeding down this path.

NOTE: As you read through this, it might be easy to feel discouraged. Don’t let that happen! Instead, face it confidently, because you have knowledge that gives you an edge over most writers who are essentially throwing darts in the dark to hit a target. Understanding the marketplace is critical for developing a winning strategy.

Imagine being on a boat that needs to drop anchor, floating just above an underwater cliff without realizing it. You must decide whether to drop the anchor on one side or the other. On one side, your anchor will reach the ocean floor quickly, but on the other side, it continues to drop, pulling more and more rope into the depths with no end in sight… and then you finally hit bottom. This illustrates the feeling that successful authors experience — with “successful” being the key phrase in both traditional and self-publishing.

We did our best to crunch the numbers. Obtaining exact data is difficult, but we are confident that our statistics are very close to reality.

Based on available statistics from various sources, we’ll break down the odds for traditional publishing (landing a deal) and self-publishing (earning at least $50,000 profit). These are estimated probabilities based on data from industry surveys, agent reports, and author income studies. Note that “success” is rare in both paths, with traditional publishing being highly competitive for representation, and self-publishing requiring strong marketing for profitability. Odds are approximate and can vary depending on the genre, author platform, and level of effort. We repeat ourselves, but it takes persistence and patience above all else to succeed in this game.

Compared to Traditional Publishing: Chances of Securing a Deal

Traditional publishing entails querying agents, securing representation, and then obtaining a publishing deal. Statistics show it’s highly selective:

Literary agents receive 5,000 to 15,000 queries annually but only sign 1 to 5 new clients each year. This results in an acceptance rate of approximately 0.01 to 0.1% per agent.

Authors typically query 50–100 agents before receiving an offer; however, success remains rare, with fewer than 1% of submitted manuscripts being accepted by publishers.

Overall odds: For an author actively querying 50–100 agents, the chance of securing representation is about 1–2%, and approximately 50% of those manuscript submissions that are represented end in a deal. Therefore, the total odds of landing a traditional publishing deal are roughly 0.5–1% for persistent authors.

Self-Publishing: Odds of Earning at Least $50,000 Profit

Self-publishing is more accessible, with millions of authors publishing yearly through platforms like Amazon KDP; however, most authors do not see significant profits.

The median income for self-published authors is $6,080 per year, with 77% earning less than $1,000 and 33% earning less than $500.

Approximately 10% of self-published authors earn over $100,000 annually; however, among those earning $50,000 or more, surveys indicate that 28% of active self-publishers reach this level.

With 1–2 million self-published books annually, the chance of earning a $50,000 profit is generally low (1–5%). However, it increases to 20–30% for those who publish multiple books and invest in marketing. Therefore, the overall probability of self-publishers making at least $50,000 profit is estimated at 1–5%, but rises to 10–28% for dedicated authors.

NOTE: Traditional publishing’s low success rate (0.5–1%) reflects gatekeeping, whereas self-publishing’s rate (1–5%) depends on the effort invested. Both require persistence.

This is the primary reason the Writers Club of America was established.

CLICK HERE if you haven’t seen our introductory video.

Many writers spend more money on classes and information to learn how to navigate the two worlds than they actually recover. Not understanding the facts (statistics) properly causes many to give up – feeling like they aren’t good enough, even when that isn’t necessarily true.

NOTE: Our estimates show that self-publishing is accessible but competitive—courses and marketing investments pay off for dedicated authors, but time is the real “cost” to reach $50k. Focus on niches and series for better chances.

Average Spend on Marketing

Marketing includes ads (Amazon, Facebook), book promotions (BookBub, Goodreads), cover design, and email lists. It’s the largest variable expense after editing.

Average Spend: $500–$2,000 per book for beginners; $1,000–$5,000 for those reaching $50k in sales. Successful authors often allocate 20–30% of their revenue for ongoing marketing. For $50,000 in sales, the total marketing spend across multiple books could be $10,000–$20,000.

Average Spend on Courses

Self-publishing courses teach skills like editing, cover design, marketing, and platform use (e.g., Kindle Direct Publishing, or KDP). Costs range from free to over $597 for premium programs.

Average Spend: $200–$500 per author. Many start with low-cost ($50–$100) or free options, but “successful” authors (earning $ 50,000 or more) often invest in one to two courses costing $300–$600.

Common Foods?: Wait, no—this is about self-publishing costs, not actual foods! (If you meant metaphorical “foods” for success, it’s courses like Mark Dawson’s Self-Publishing Formula at $597.)

Time Involved to Market a Book to $50,000 in Sales

Reaching $50,000 in sales (profit after costs) usually takes 1–3 books and 6–24 months of marketing efforts. Success develops over time as the series and audience grow.

Average Time: 12–24 months to earn $50k annually, dedicating 5–10 hours weekly to marketing (such as ads, email, social media). Authors in the “20 Books to $50k” group report taking about 2 years to finish multiple books. Debut authors rarely reach $50,000 in under six months unless they have viral success.

Examples of Self-Publish Success Stories

The two examples below show two different ways persistence can pay off.

How the SILO series on Apple TV came about:

Hugh Howey kept self-publishing after his first short story, Wool, gained traction in 2011. He began with a standalone short story, published through Amazon’s Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP) in July 2011, which quickly gained popularity through word of mouth and reader reviews. Motivated by this response, Howey wrote and self-published four more installments as novellas between 2011 and 2012, thereby expanding the story into a full series. He then compiled them into the Wool Omnibus, which he also self-published on Amazon.

The series’ success grew organically through self-publishing, selling over a million copies independently by 2012. Howey continued this approach with the sequels Shift (self-published in 2013) and Dust (self-published later that year), keeping control of eBook rights while eventually signing print-only deals with publishers like Simon & Schuster for broader distribution. This gradual shift to self-publishing helped him build a loyal following and demonstrate market demand before securing traditional deals.

How the Hollywood movie The Martian came about.

If you’re looking for another example where an author self-published multiple works to gain success without immediate traditional deals, Andy Weir’s The Martian started as a self-published serial on his blog in 2011, then as a full self-published eBook on Amazon in 2012, before going viral and leading to a print deal.

NOTE: In the first example, the author used Amazon to build a following through a series, and in the second example, he used his website to attract followers by posting his novel as a serial. The point is, based on our examples and statistics, most people who succeed grow their audience gradually.